There seems to be some struggle to enumerate the ways in which closing the Strait of Hormuz affects an average person anywhere in the world, but particularly within the historically comfortably insulated United States. This stems from our broad and long-standing ignorance of how stuff gets to us. This is such a deep problem that there are oil energy experts who have not called out the false claims that the US has “all the oil” it needs and is not affected by closure of the Strait. Which is utter bullshit… To whit… if we have all the oil we need, why has the price of gasoline in the US increased by over a dollar per gallon since the war began?
Indeed, why are costs rising? Because we don’t have the right kind of oil to make transport fuel, nor do we have refineries that are tooled to deal with the oil we currently flush out of American rocks.
The early 2000’s shale oil boom in North America opened up well-fields that produce a light, “sweet” oil. (It’s actually not very oily, but more gassy.) Nearly 80% of oil production in the US is now shale oil. These light oils can be refined into fuels like gasoline and jet fuel, and naphtha from light oil can be made into plastic. So, in theory, the US could make some of what we need from our native oil stocks.
Except…
The shale oil boom is much younger than our oil refining infrastructure. Originally, the oil flowing out of US rocks was the heavy crude that can be turned into diesel fuel and heating oil, among other products. So, originally, all our oil processing facilities were built to work with heavy oil. But those older well-fields are no longer very productive, constituting just 20% of what is produced now. The kicker is that refineries that process heavy oil can’t reliably process light oil, and it’s quite expensive to retool the older refineries. Which expense is anathema to corporate profits…
But this was not a problem for the shale oil boomers. Most American light oil was simply shipped off to more recently built refineries elsewhere in the world — largely in the Middle East which also drills most of the world’s light oil. Oil companies then imported heavy crude to feed into America’s aging refineries — again, mostly from the Middle East… For two decades, there has been a continual cycling of heavy and light oil around the globe, mostly between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Mexico — all of such shipping, of course, fueled by oil. (And shipping oil, by the way, is a heavy crude product.)
(A brief aside for Venezuela… because I’m a blathering geologist… The stuff that Trump extorted from Venezuelans is even more problematic. It’s a thick, tarry sludge that is too heavy even for American refineries. So it’s sort of worse than useless… It’s an expense… Hence, oil companies have not yet exuberantly embraced that particular “windfall”.)
So there’s your greatly simplified explainer for why gasoline is more expensive even though we have all this oil. But it’s not just gasoline.
Remember that naphtha thing? Made from light oil? Shale oil that is largely shipped elsewhere, mostly to the Middle East, at great expense, to be refined, producing the feedstocks for plastic and fertilizer and thousands of other petrochemicals? Yeah, that’s all bottled up in this war also. And what is made from naphtha? The question is more what isn’t… Everything is plastic…
I don’t think I could make an exhaustive list of all the things that are made from petrochemicals. Here is a short litany of the things that affect you daily: clothing and shoes, dyes and paints, artificial scents and flavors, glycerin (the base of soap), surfactants (the base of many shampoos and liquid cleaners), paraffin, mineral oil (baby oil), vinyl, carpeting and most furniture, siding and roofing, acrylic, non-stick coatings, lubricants (from Vaseline to Valvoline), car bodies and most tires, pens and the inks that fill them, the keyboards we type on and the screens we read, umbrellas, soccer balls and most other sports equipment, tents and sun-shades, hot air balloons, mylar balloons and their associated curly ribbons, a rather scary amount of food preservatives, many feedstocks for drugs of all kinds, all the packaging that encases everything that must be shipped… and so on and on and on… Even a short list of the petrochemicals we use in an average day is too long.
For Trump to say that the US doesn’t need the Strait of Hormuz opened is so stupid it would be laughable — if it weren’t so dire. Quite literally everything for sale in most supermarkets has gone through that Strait, often multiple times at various stages of production. And everything that is shipped between any two locations on this planet is reliant on diesel-fueled engines, which fuel is only possible with a steady flow of heavy crude through the Strait.
Again, much simplified… but there is the explainer for why everything is more expensive.
But it gets worse. Because places many weeks distant from the Strait have yet to be affected by reduced traffic through the Strait. The last ships to pass through before February 28th are just reaching their most distant ports, like those in the Americas. The fuel in those ships is at pre-war prices. But those fuel tanks are empty now and will be refueled at 40%, 50%, 70% higher cost. Worse, many ports rely on oil tankers from the Strait to restock ship fueling stations. So, many ships are pulling into port only to be docked because there is no fuel for a return trip. This started affecting places like South Korea and Japan weeks ago because these countries are closer to the Strait and boats bound for Asia reached port when the war was still fresh.
What does that mean for the US that “doesn’t need the Strait open”? Much of the stuff that flows between Asia and America, which… is everything… is now stuck in port. It is not moving on to the next stage in production. It is not heading out to restock American warehouses and retail shelves. It is not making its way to you. In the coming weeks, it’s quite likely that we’re going to experience shortages that will make the COVID shutdown seem like a mild bump. (Because it actually was… and yet…)
Moreover, those shipping fuel prices are not going to come down immediately when, or if, the Strait is opened. (Which does not seem likely to be soon… At the time of this writing, Iran holds all the cards on that and is charging exorbitant tolls even to their “friends”.) At best, all the ships will be refueled at the current high prices, spiking the cost of shipping even higher. But, because it takes a long time for shut-in oil fields to be brought back up to capacity, there are likely to be fuel and feedstock shortages for months, maybe years. In fact, it is not impossible that the world will never again see the flow of cheap oil through the Strait, lubricating the flow of every other thing around the globe. This may be the end of globalization, at least for Americans, who have the misfortune to be governed by a regime that no other country trusts enough even to sell us stuff.
Worse, if the current 48-hour ultimatum does not result in another TACO, Monday morning might see the entire Middle East engulfed in flames and radioactive fall-out. Which, of course, would put the kibosh on the whole Gulf States project altogether…
Yes, I’ve been getting a bit doomy recently…
But in a strangely resigned way. Because I’m not particularly surprised. I can say that I never expected my country to bomb Iran, but I can also say that I totally expected something to go drastically wrong with the global order in the not too distant future. That’s sort of been the guiding star of my life for a couple decades now. Things will break down. Because things that are unsustainable can not be sustained. Throw a bit of megalomaniac havoc into the already fragile system and it will collapse. In fact, as early as 2005, analysts in some circles were predicting something very like what is happening now — the end of the world order via a conflagration that shut the Strait of Hormuz. So this was not unexpected… I’ve been preparing. And I’ve been trying to help and teach others how to prepare also. This blog is a symptom of my prepping…
Which brings me back to home and garden…
Rule #1 when facing a time of shortages is to make sure you have food. I started gardening decades ago precisely because that was a way to ensure that I could feed my family no matter what weirdness was happening in the world. At the time, it was more a case of relative food shortages than absolute lack. I was concerned with feeding my kids healthy food as opposed to the toxic, corn-starch muck for sale in grocery stores. I also started shopping heavily at local farm markets and buying direct from local producers. I bought a CSA share from the local community farm (a place that provides jobs AND fills bellies!). And I learned how to safely store the harvest through fermentation, canning, freezing and drying produce.
My advice to those who have not yet begun this process of ensuring their own food sovereignty is to buy at least one CSA share this year, maybe several. This means that you are paying current prices for your food and that you will be first served when supply runs short. And, if you have any potential for growing your own food, even a balcony that can hold a large planter and some 5-gallon buckets, then invest in that now. If you have a yard, dig it up this year even if you have no idea how to grow veg. Put in raised beds and cover them with straw for a year or two, if you must, while you figure out how to use them. But build out that garden infrastructure now. It will never be as cheap as it is today (even though it’s NOT cheap today). After this terrible spring, it may never be possible to buy what you need at all.
Similarly, plant trees. Buy the largest fruit and nut trees you can find and afford. If you don’t know how to plant a tree, ask for help. If you don’t have land, buy the tree anyway and find someplace to plant it. There are plenty of neighborhoods that are looking for tree donations. Gather a group and plant an orchard in the local park. Even better, plant a food forest, with veg growing under the fruit and nut trees. These trees are not going to immediately feed you, but once they start producing, they will last longer than you will, securing food for your community for generations.
This too will never be as cheap a project as it is today… even though it is not cheap. So do it now.
When you buy your CSA veg share, ask the farmer if they have recommendations for local dairy, local meat, local grain. They will. Farmers all know each other. They buy from each other. So follow the farmers to local food. You may be able to do community supported agriculture for most of your staples, perhaps even for such things as wool and hemp fiber products. Further, while you are talking to local producers, ask what they cook, how they store food, what their kids will eat and what nobody will ever touch, how to turn unfamiliar veg into delicious meals. Again, farmers know all this stuff. If they don’t have a favorite recipe, they have an aunt who will tell you everything you never knew you’d need to know about food.
And, by now, you’re saying, But I live in the Bronx. I don’t know any farmers… Baloney… There is no neighborhood anywhere that does not have at least one crazy old gardener who will be only too happy to share wisdom and produce with you. There are few places that don’t have community gardens these days. There are CSA shares distributed out of schools and church basements everywhere. I’m betting even your local library has a message board posted with CSA offerings right now. And in large communities, you can join food cooperatives that purchase regional produce at bulk rates. So join now. Maybe even volunteer for such community and cooperative ventures. (In fact, in many co-ops, part of membership is paid for in volunteer hours… so be aware of that…)
Now, wherever you live, there are going to be some things that simply aren’t available locally. My advice is to learn to go without. Or at least drastically reduce use of food that must be transported long distances, especially bulky things or foods that need to be kept fresh. For me, in Vermont, oranges are a special treat that show up in late November and vanish again by February. I don’t remember the last time I had a grapefruit. I have a weakness for guacamole and buy it in restaurants, but I don’t go out to eat more than once a month on average. So I have perhaps three or four avocados a year. I don’t eat tomatoes in winter or pumpkin in spring, except what I’ve stored from the prior harvest. And I just don’t buy ridiculous things like fish that is flown in on ice or fruit that only grows in tropical rainforests. Also… I use maple and sorghum so I can skip much of the evil refined sugar empire…
These are not hardships… Eating delicious and abundant local food more than compensates for losing out on some things that often don’t taste all that great anyway once they’ve been shipped for thousands of miles. But it will be an adjustment. And I think it’s easier to adjust yourself with intention than to adjust to a sudden imposition from uncontrollable exigencies. Better to choose to abstain willingly than to find yourself deprived.
So, I’ve been concentrating on producing the best harvest I can this year. I’m buying a CSA veg share from one farm, and I’m pre-buying from a local farm market that sells a range of products. This latter involves paying into an account that guarantees that dollar amount of food, though, unlike a CSA share, I can decide what I want to take home. That will pretty much cover my food needs. I will also have plenty to share with my elderly neighbors and my son if things go sideways. I will probably have veg that can be donated to the local food pantry as well. So, I’m set on food, I think… (She says, knowing that there are always unknown unknowns lurking in the wings…)
But, recognizing that things will never be as cheap and abundant as they are right now, I’ve also started a small hoarding campaign. I bought a box of about a hundred biodegradable plastic bags for trash and the compost bin. That should last me a couple years, hopefully long enough for Seventh Generation to start producing corn starch plastic. I bought a dozen recycled-paper, spiral-bound notebooks, a large box of envelopes, and a bunch of my favorite pens. As long as the ink stays liquid and the paper stays dry, these ought to last me for a long time. Maybe the rest of my life. I bought enough soap to keep me clean for months, maybe years. I ordered what may be the last round of the castile soap I occasionally buy from Williams-Sonoma. I stocked up on Seventh Generation cleaning products, paper towels, and toilet paper — because I learned that lesson during COVID… I bought extra cat litter and enough cat food to keep her fed for a few months, not because I envision cat food scarcity, but because the food she will deign to eat is already expensive enough… For the same reason, I’ve been stocking up on imperishable things like toothpaste and tissues, flour and olive oil, and buying a bit extra in the canned food aisle each time I’m at the co-op. And I made sure to get a 90-day supply of both my thyroid medication and blood pressure pills. With so many prescription drugs manufactured in India these days and India sort of tanking right now, who knows what’s going to happen with that…
I am fortunate to have the space to store extra stuff. If you live in a tiny urban apartment, it might be a bit more difficult. I would recommend getting together with other people in your building to create community storage space. Ideally, this would be in your building, but that isn’t always feasible (or maybe desirable, given the condition of potential basement or rooftop storage spaces in older apartment buildings). But you could pool your funds and rent a storage unit (which are new and often nicer than your apartment…). Fill it with cheap restaurant-supply pantry shelves, designate a space for each “member” of your storage co-op, and fill up the shelves with whatever you will need in the coming months. I would especially make sure you have toilet paper covered through the summer months because that is likely to vanish again. And I would say this summer is going to be the worst of the pinch, though probably not the worst of the prices.
This is also going to be a summer of expensive personal transport. If you have a vacation trip planned… well… I would cancel. If you haven’t already bought tickets, you’re probably not going to be able to afford them anyway. For Americans, know that the dollar isn’t going to buy you much if you leave this country, nor is your nationality going to buy you much goodwill abroad. (And who knows if you’ll be let back in to go home…)
But even at home, travel is going to be prohibitively expensive. It’s probably a really good time to figure out how to meet your needs through public transport, biking and walking. If you have the money (how?), now is the time to buy an electric car or electric cargo bike, if there is no way for you to go car-free. (And in most rural places, I know you just can’t…) I am extra glad that I’m walking to work now. Initially, I was happy just to avoid driving up and down the mountains in winter weather. Now, it appears to be a necessity. My plug-in hybrid doesn’t use much gasoline, but it does have a very old battery. I don’t want to be using it daily in a time when I’m not sure that I’ll be able to replace it when it finally dies. Let it sit in the garage for most of its old age.
I also have a bit of financial advice. If you have funds in traditional investments, it is time to get out. Sell stocks. Close your retirement accounts. Put your funds into CDs at local credit unions or savings banks. Or invest in things you will need like that garden infrastructure or whatever needs repairing in your home. Remember to set aside what will be needed to pay the tax hit next year. But, trust me, that will be much less than you will lose in this imploding market. There are already signs that things are going permanently wrong on Wall Street. Investment firms like Black Rock and Morgan Stanley are limiting the funds you can withdraw out of your own account, meaning people who are smart about investing are already pulling out and these large firms don’t have the liquidity to cover the runs.
(As a side note… There is also the terrifying fact that well over half of the market is now soaked in AI — which technology doesn’t even have a clear path to monetization, never mind return on investment. This is a bubble of massive proportions that will burst. Probably all the sooner under the stress of energy and resource scarcity…)
This is not going to get better. Many people are saying that the coming hit is going to dwarf the global financial crisis of 2008. We could be in full economic depression by autumn. Only there won’t be a fossil-fueled world war and post-war recovery to pull the globe out of this one… Just a world war over the dregs of the fossil fuels…
So with that in mind, I’ve decided that this is crunch time on whatever renovations I’m going to do on this house. It is literally now or never — and I suspect much will fall into the never bin. This summer I will have the house painted. I’m planning on replacing the shakes that are in bad shape rather than ripping off all the siding and starting over. I will also get the jungle fixed, which might have the double benefit of producing a large pile of ready-to-burn firewood.
Because I still need to do something about a heat source that is not dependent on the electric grid, and I’m quite sure that I will not be getting a heat pump and solar panels. But I probably don’t have the funds to do a full-house wood heat system either. I will probably tune up the generator instead. If need be, I’ll buy a larger one, perhaps one that will be wired into my house electrical system. If I get a new one, it will be powered by biodiesel, which in this land of cows and corn, is always plentiful. However, I will put a small wood-burning stove into the existing fireplace — which might look awkward, but will heat up the rather massive masonry around the hearth and should do quite nice as a main heat source in the shoulder seasons and during power outages. It may even reduce furnace use on normal winter nights by quite a lot.
So my advice is if you have things that need fixing, now is the time. After we run through existing supplies in stores and warehouses (which, in these days of just-in-time shipping is not a huge amount of stuff…) anything that involves plastic or transport of bulk is going to be prohibitively expensive, if available at all. Instead of a vacation, this is the summer to fix everything — with an eye to making your home more resilient, better able to shelter you in whatever fun times the future brings. Don’t bother with expensive gadgetry. Find low-cost and low-tech ways to meet your needs — because these will last and they will work even when everything else stops working.
I don’t want to sound too doomy here… but it’s likely that home is where you will be for most of the remainder of your life. So use this last bit of the old world economic system to craft your home well. Make it into the place you want to be, more so than anywhere else in the world. Your home. Your place to gather, to enjoy life, to cook and eat delicious food, to garden, to celebrate, to sleep.
The wonderful thing about doing this is that you will enjoy the rewards regardless of what happens in the wider world. If by some miracle, the world is saved from economic ruin this year, at worst you will have a snug home filled with what you need. And you’ll be ready for when the collapse actually does come… because Trump is not the only tipping point in this teetering system. There are too many to count, and they are all interrelated. Something will bring it all down. What is unsustainable can not be sustained… But what is sustainable will hum on contentedly essentially forever… It’s time to find that place…
©Elizabeth Anker 2026
By My Solitary Hearth 